A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
